Poland is the third-largest grain producer in the European Union, which is the world’s largest producer. In 2022, Poland produced 35 million tons of grain, of which 9-10 million tons were exported.

Despite this, Poland has a relatively low yield compared to the EU average, at about 70% per hectare. Poland mainly exports wheat, primarily to Germany, but also to African countries such as Algeria, Nigeria, and South Africa.

High grain prices in Poland in 2022 and the limited availability of domestic raw materials led processors and trading companies to import from Ukraine at the expense of Polish farmers. However, currently both global and national prices are significantly lower, and domestic supply is sufficient, so companies are not interested in importing from Ukraine. Media and public opinion have circulated information about Ukrainian grains, causing most companies to now avoid importing from Ukraine, especially given the lack of competitive pricing of Ukrainian products.

Currently, the focus of farmers and politicians is on temporarily blocking the import of Ukrainian grain. However, few are paying attention to a completely different long-term context of what has recently begun. Namely, that Ukraine will be our biggest competitor in grain exports to Western Europe, which is our key recipient (consuming 56% of our exports). The development of transit through Poland means that many processors from Germany and the Netherlands are already sourcing directly from Ukraine. Given that our annual grain surplus is 9-10 million tons, actions must now be taken to prevent future market shocks. Unfortunately, currently only immediate crises are being addressed.

Poland suffers from relatively low productivity (70% of the EU average) for several fundamental reasons, which will require actions both locally and nationally in the coming years. The upcoming competition from Ukraine will force changes often on the basis of “adapt or perish.”